Michael Giberson
Tyler Cowen picks the market consensus over book-writing pundits:
Either the current market estimate of inflation is the best estimate available, or you know that it is wrong and you will be a very rich man. I find the former scenario more plausible.
Cowen is commenting on the Kevin Phillips book, Bad Money, recently out.
Of course book authors may be wary of going directly into the financial markets to wager their hard earned cash, which is why I have advocated prediction markets for pundits in which authors would have a chance to back their book-selling punditry with real money. See my post: Separating cheap talk from truly held beliefs.
Books take too long to get to market -- market strategies are old. Authors also spend more time defending (promised) positions with words instead of money -- makes it easier to put on blinders. Finally, trade first and write later. That's why we get memoirs instead of predicted successes